Elikem Mensah
Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance for 2009 will be seriously affected by the global financial turmoil. According to Bank of Ghana’s econometric model, Ghana’s GDP growth is expected to be cut down further by 0.3% to settle at 6.3% at the end of 2009.
Already BoG has projected GDP growth of 6.6% for 2008 lower than the 7% that government had estimated to achieve in the 2008, as stated in the 2008 budget statement. Additionally the model reveals an end of year inflation to peak at 17%, a figure far higher than the single digit forecast for the year.
Financial experts have predicted that the global turmoil is most likely to end by August 2009. It is being anticipated that the global turmoil will affect Ghana’s inward remittances.
Private inward transfers from non-governmental organization (NGOs), embassies, service providers as well as individuals through the banks in the first nine months of 2008 amounted to US$6.5 billion, which represents a 35.6% increase over the corresponding period of 2007, which were in turn a 13.4% increase over transfers for the same period in 2006.
The threat therefore is that, should inward transfers drop by a third due to the global crisis, Ghana’s current account deficit is likely to double to settle at around US$5,001.8 million from a deficit of US$2,500.9 million recorded during the first nine months of 2008.
Additionally, Ghana’s overall balance of payment deficit will also quadruple to US$2,916.8 million recorded from January to September 2008, warns the Central bank.
Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance for 2009 will be seriously affected by the global financial turmoil. According to Bank of Ghana’s econometric model, Ghana’s GDP growth is expected to be cut down further by 0.3% to settle at 6.3% at the end of 2009.
Already BoG has projected GDP growth of 6.6% for 2008 lower than the 7% that government had estimated to achieve in the 2008, as stated in the 2008 budget statement. Additionally the model reveals an end of year inflation to peak at 17%, a figure far higher than the single digit forecast for the year.
Financial experts have predicted that the global turmoil is most likely to end by August 2009. It is being anticipated that the global turmoil will affect Ghana’s inward remittances.
Private inward transfers from non-governmental organization (NGOs), embassies, service providers as well as individuals through the banks in the first nine months of 2008 amounted to US$6.5 billion, which represents a 35.6% increase over the corresponding period of 2007, which were in turn a 13.4% increase over transfers for the same period in 2006.
The threat therefore is that, should inward transfers drop by a third due to the global crisis, Ghana’s current account deficit is likely to double to settle at around US$5,001.8 million from a deficit of US$2,500.9 million recorded during the first nine months of 2008.
Additionally, Ghana’s overall balance of payment deficit will also quadruple to US$2,916.8 million recorded from January to September 2008, warns the Central bank.
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