By Kofi Ahovi
External trade data from the Bank of Ghana for the first nine months of 2011 show that the balance of trade recorded a provisional deficit of US$1.7 billion. However, this compares favourably to a deficit of US$2 billion for the corresponding period in 2010.
Total merchandise exports amounted to US$9.8 billion in 2011, representing a growth of about 67% over the same period of 2010. The strong export growth continues to be driven by gold, cocoa beans and crude oil. The total export of crude oil from January to September was US$1.97 billion, while gold exports was US$3.7 billion, and cocoa beans was US$1.7 billion.
On the other hand, total merchandise imports amounted to US$11.5 billion, representing an annual growth of 45.6. Crude oil imports were US$991.4 million while imports of oil products amounted to US$1.1 billion. In addition, there were imports of gas through the West African Gas Pipeline of US$107.9 million.
Total non-oil imports, classified according to the Basic Economic Classification (BEC) or end use, amounted to US$9.3 billion. Consumption goods imported amounted to US$2.3 billion. Intermediate imports totalled US$4.5 billion, while imports of capital goods were US$1.9 billion and others amounted to US$598 million.
However, private inward transfers to individuals increased marginally to reach US$1.3 billion between January and August, up from US$1.1 billion recorded in August 2010.
Also, the Gross International Reserves (GIR) of the Bank of Ghana was US$4.6 billion as at September 2011, equivalent to 3.5 months of import cover. As at October 13, GIR improved to US$5.3 billion, equivalent to 3.8 months of import cover.
The bilateral movement of the cedi against the US dollar, in nominal terms, recorded 3.2% depreciation from January to September 2011, compared to 0.1% appreciation over the same period in 2010. In trade weighted terms, the cedi recorded a nominal effective depreciation of 2.2% by end September. The trade weighted real effective depreciation was 0.2% during January to August 2011.
Fitch Solutions has reaffirmed its projection that Ghana’s economy will expand by 4.2% in 2025. This estimate slightly exceeds the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 4% and the World Bank’s projection of 3.9%. The UK-based research firm attributes its outlook to historically high gold prices, which are expected to cushion the Ghanaian economy against a global slowdown triggered by rising tariffs. Higher gold prices are anticipated to strengthen government revenue, enhance foreign exchange earnings, and help sustain currency stability. The report also highlights that Ghana is relatively less vulnerable to increasing trade restrictions from the United States, given that its primary exports—gold and crude oil—are not directly affected by the tariffs introduced by President Trump’s administration. Moreover, the US constitutes only about 4% to 5% of Ghana’s total exports. In contrast, Ghana’s trade relations are more heavily oriented toward China and European countries, particul...
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