IMF forecasts a fiscal deficit of 9.2% of GDP for Ghana in 2022

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting a fiscal deficit of 9.2% of Gross Domestic Product for Ghana in 2022.

This is coming despite a significant cut in expenditure and expected improvement in revenue.

The deficit is slightly lower than the 11.4% it projected for 2021.

It is however higher than government’s revised 6.6%, captured in the Mid-Year Budget Review.

Based on the figures, the country’s fiscal deficit to GDP is higher than all its peers in Sub-Sahara Africa. Zambia follows closely with a fiscal deficit of 9.1% of GDP in 2022.

The Fund said in its October 2022 Fiscal Monitor Report the deficit will however be slightly lower in 2023, 2024 and 2025 at 8.6%, 8.9% and 8.7% respectively.

It will however assume an upward trajectory in 2026 and 2027 at 9.7% and 9.6% respectively.

Primary deficit to end year at 2.1% of GDP

Meanwhile, the primary deficit is estimated at 2.1% of GDP in 2022.

It will however narrow to 1.1% of GDP in 2023 and further to 0.0% in 2024.

This will indicate that the country’s revenue mobilisation may be improving.

Revenue to improve but expenditure performance will be mixed

Also, government tax revenue in relation to the country’s Gross Domestic Product will grow consecutively from 14.1% in 2022 to 14.7% in 2023, and subsequently to 15.4% in 2025% and then 16.1% in 2026.

However, it is lower than most of its peers in the Sub Saharan Africa region.

Government expenditure in relation to GDP is also estimated at 23.3% of GDP in 2022, a drop from 25.7% recorded in 2021.

It will however remain unchanged in 2023 but will shoot up consecutively in 2024, 2025 and 2026 to 24.3%, 24.8% and 25.8% respectively.

Comparatively to its peers on the African continent, Ghana’s expenditure is one of the highest.

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