The Ghana Association of Banks is sounding the alarm, urging lenders to prepare for new risks as the country exits the IMF Extended Credit Facility programme in August 2026.
Despite improving macroeconomic conditions, the end of external support exposes banks to fresh pressures, including possible swings in global interest rates, potential capital flow reversals, and renewed currency pressures.
To be sure, when global interest rates change, it can affect the flow of money into and out of Ghana. If interest rates rise in major economies like the US or Europe, investors might pull their money out of Ghana to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.
This can lead to;
Risk of potential capital flow reversals: Investors might withdraw their investments from Ghana, causing a sudden outflow of capital. This reduces the amount of money available in the banking system, making it harder for banks to lend and increasing funding costs.
Renewed currency pressures: A sudden outflow of capital can weaken the Ghanaian cedi, making imports more expensive and potentially fueling inflation. A weaker cedi can also increase the cost of servicing foreign debt, further straining banks' balance sheets
To mitigate these risks, banks are being urged to deepen risk management frameworks, maintain prudent lending standards and diversify portfolios towards infrastructure financing and high-growth sectors.
The Association projects single-digit inflation throughout 2026, anchored on continued fiscal discipline and stronger external reserves. However, sustaining low inflation beyond 2026 will depend on anchoring expectations, maintaining fiscal discipline, and tackling structural drivers of food inflation and import dependence.
The Ghana Association of Banks emphasizes a disciplined approach to protect financial stability and ensure the sector emerges stronger post-IMF programme.
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