By Kofi Ahovi & Toma Imirhe
As the Ghanaian cedi suffers its worst bout of depreciation since the first half of 2009, having fallen by about 3.31% against the major trading currencies since the beginning of this year the Bank of Ghana is now scrambling to intervene on the foreign exchange market with a view to stabilising the national currency.
BoG is looking to overhaul its forex intervention measures used to stabilize the cedi’s value mainly by releasing foreign currencies, particularly the dollar, onto the exchange market. That is, as and when the need arises to among other things meet the foreign currency needs of commercial banks and the country’s oil imports.
The central bank now wants to strengthen its interventions by equally matching demand of foreign currency with supply. Indications are that the central bank has set up a committee tasked with the proposition of other measures to support cedi from further decline.
The central bank over the past two weeks has more than doubled its intervention onto the market with nearly 450 million dollars. This is relatively high compared to a weekly average of US$50 million. The country’s gross international reserve as at the end of last year is nearly US$5 billion. This would cover more than three months of import cover of goods.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Ghana is projecting the cedi would stabilize appreciably by the end of this month as a result of its intervention measures implemented so far.
The interventions are crucial because depreciation feeds into domestic inflation and the BoG which practices inflation targeting has a target of 8.5% for 2012. The 12-month period of 2011 ended with an inflation rate of 8.58% for December 2011, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Ghana Statistical Service. This was lower than the end-of-year inflation target of 9.0% for 2011. However, the December 2011 inflation figure was higher than the 8.58% recorded for November last year.
However, there is a school of thought within both the public and private sectors which believes that the strength of the cedi prior to the sudden current depreciation has been artificial, the national currency having been buoyed by oil revenues and the foreign investment that Ghana’s new status as commercial oil producer has attracted.
This goes the agreement could make Ghana a victim of Dutch Disease- the diversion of resources and output into the oil sector, from other sectors of the economy- unless the cedi is allowed to depreciate as if though oil production induced forex inflation had not occurred
Financial analysts are predicting that the Cedi will weaken by about 10% versus the US dollar this year, which will largely be a repeat of the 2011 performance.
The Cedi lost grounds on the currency market last week, slipping against all the major trading currencies. Against the Dollar and the Euro, the local currency depreciated by 0.42% and 1.23% to close the week at GH¢1.6167 and GH¢2.0981 respectively. The cedi also fell by 1.09%, 1.47% and 1.67% against the Pound, Swiss Franc and the South African Rand to close the week at GH¢2.5059, GH¢1.7354 and GH¢0.2038 respectively
Local and international factors combined to cause the Cedi to weaken by 11% against the dollar based on inter-bank data, ending 2011 at 1 Cedi 66 pesewas per dollar.
A large part of the 2011 Cedi weakness was experienced in the second half of 2011, leading to increased price of imported goods especially during the festive season in December. According to market watchers, the phenomenon is likely to repeat itself this year.
Developments in the nominal bilateral exchange rates of the Cedi to the US dollar showed increased depreciation. In the year to November 2011, the Cedi depreciated by 4. 5% against the US dollar, compared with a depreciation of 0. 6% in November 2010.
In trade weighted terms, a real effective depreciation of 2. 3% was recorded in November 2011, compared to an appreciation of 1. 5% in the corresponding period of 2010.
Cocoa is the single largest export commodity for Ghana representing a huge chunk of the country’s foreign exchange earnings and with the sinking cocoa prices, this is likely to affect the volume of foreign exchange Ghana will get.
Another factor that is likely to contribute to the depreciation of the Cedi is the anticipated lower offshore investor interest in Ghana bonds.
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