Ghana’s recovery supported by gold strength despite global oil price pressures – Standard Bank Research

Ghana’s economic recovery continues to show encouraging signs of resilience, supported by strong gold export performance and improving macroeconomic stability, even as rising global oil prices present new external challenges. That is according to the latest economic outlook on Ghana by Standard Bank, Stanbic Bank Ghana’s parent company.

Speaking on recent developments, Head of Africa Research at Stanbic Bank, Jibran Qureishi, noted that Ghana has made meaningful progress in stabilizing inflation, rebuilding foreign exchange reserves, and restoring confidence in the economy. While global energy market developments require careful monitoring, he said the country is better positioned today to navigate external shocks.

He explained that, as a net oil importer, Ghana remains sensitive to movements in global crude prices, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, stronger domestic fundamentals and policy reforms are helping to cushion potential impacts on the broader economy. “Domestic conditions have improved significantly, and Ghana has built important buffers. While higher oil prices may create some upward pressure on transport and food costs, the economy is entering this phase from a position of greater stability,” he said.

Recent trade data reflects both the opportunities and challenges facing the economy. By February 2026, oil imports reached approximately $852.7 million, compared to $451.5 million in oil exports, highlighting the importance of continued diversification and prudent economic management.

Encouragingly, gold exports have emerged as a major pillar of strength. Export earnings surged to $4.3 billion in February 2026, up from $2.3 billion during the same period last year, reinforcing Ghana’s external position and supporting foreign exchange inflows. Qureishi credited the Bank of Ghana’s domestic gold purchase programme as a key contributor to this improvement, helping to expand reserves and enhance currency stability.

Gold has become an important stabilizing force for Ghana’s economy,” he said. “It is helping offset pressures from oil imports while sustaining a strong current account position under challenging global conditions.”

Foreign exchange reserves have correspondingly strengthened, rising to about $12.5 billion in February 2026, equivalent to more than five months of import cover. This improvement has supported relative stability in the cedi and strengthened investor confidence despite global market volatility. While global financial conditions remain dynamic, Stanbic noted that Ghana’s improved external buffers provide greater flexibility to manage potential fluctuations in export demand, including shifts in global gold markets.

ibran Qureishi, Head, Economics Research, Africa Regions, Stanbic Bank

For businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs), evolving global conditions underscore the importance of efficiency and adaptation. Although higher fuel prices may raise operating costs, ongoing macroeconomic stabilization and improved currency conditions are expected to support planning certainty and business confidence across sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and trade. Farmers, traders, and logistics operators stand to benefit from a more stable economic environment, even as they adjust to changing input costs within the global marketplace. Qureishi emphasized that Ghana’s recent macroeconomic progress presents a valuable opportunity to consolidate reforms and strengthen long-term resilience.

He highlighted ongoing efforts to improve foreign exchange market functioning, including reforms to gold export proceeds and adjustments to FX trading rules, as positive steps that are enhancing transparency, reducing speculative pressures, and deepening market confidence. “Ghana has made important strides,” he said. “By maintaining policy discipline and continuing reforms, authorities can build on current momentum, strengthen economic buffers, and sustain progress on inflation and currency stability despite global uncertainties.”