Ghana’s public debt is projected to rise again despite recent improvements, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a debt-to-GDP ratio of 53.0 percent by end-2026, up from 45.3 percent in 2025.
The projection, contained in the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor released during the Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, suggests a potential reversal of the sharp gains recorded following Ghana’s debt restructuring efforts.
The Fund noted that its outlook is based on a post-debt restructuring scenario, although it did not provide detailed drivers of the expected increase.
Ghana’s debt burden had declined significantly in recent years, falling from 61.8 percent of GDP in 2024—equivalent to GH¢726.7 billion—to 45.3 percent in 2025, with total debt dropping to GH¢641 billion, according to data from the Bank of Ghana.
However, analysts warn that the outlook remains fragile and could be influenced by borrowing patterns, currency movements, and overall economic growth.
Recent developments point to a gradual return to domestic borrowing. In April 2026, the government raised about GH¢2.7 billion through a 7-year bond, marking a re-entry into long-term debt issuance after the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme. The bond carries a coupon rate of 12.5 percent and is set to mature in March 2033.
The IMF expects the debt ratio to ease slightly to 50.7 percent in 2027, provided current policy measures are sustained.
Data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows the size of the economy has expanded to an estimated GH¢1.4 trillion, up from GH¢1.1 trillion in 2024—an improvement that could help moderate debt ratios over time.
Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has outlined a series of measures aimed at maintaining debt sustainability, including increased reliance on concessional financing, rebuilding the Sinking Fund, and implementing debt reprofiling and buyback strategies.
“Our goal is to manage debt, not be managed by it,” he said in the 2026 Budget Statement, adding that Ghana aims to return to a moderate risk of debt distress by 2028.
Despite recent progress, Ghana remains classified as debt-distressed by the IMF, although the Fund acknowledges that ongoing reforms could improve the country’s risk profile if sustained.
Globally, the IMF is warning of rising public debt pressures, projecting that global debt could approach 100 percent of GDP by 2029, driven by higher spending demands and increasing interest costs.
The Fund has urged countries, including Ghana, to pursue “credible and well-sequenced fiscal adjustments” to safeguard economic stability amid growing vulnerabilities.
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