The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has warned that rising global oil prices, driven by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, could put renewed pressure on inflation and economic activity in Ghana.
Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, speaking at the opening of the 132nd MPC meeting in Accra, said Brent crude oil prices had risen to about US$107 per barrel from more than US$85 per barrel when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last met in July.
He said the increase was occurring amid disruptions to global trade and oil supply, while lower global oil inventories were leaving markets with less capacity to absorb further supply shocks.
Brent crude, which was above US$85 per barrel when the Committee last met, rose to about US$107 per barrel last week, its highest level in four months,” Dr. Asiama said.
He further added that “the conflict’s trajectory has become highly uncertain, and risks to global growth and inflation have become more pronounced,” he added.
Inflation risks
Dr. Asiama said higher global energy prices could quickly feed into the Ghanaian economy through increased transport, production and consumer costs.
He said rising energy and fertiliser import costs could place additional pressure on businesses and households.
For Ghana, the global shock is double-edged,” he said.
While higher oil prices could increase Ghana’s import bill, the Governor noted that rising gold prices could provide some support through increased export earnings, foreign exchange reserves and government revenue.
Higher gold prices provide support for export earnings, reserve accumulation, and government revenue, while higher energy and fertiliser import costs could feed through quickly to transport, production costs, and consumer prices,” he said.
The warning comes as Ghana’s inflation rate has started rising after reaching a low of 3.2 percent in March. Headline inflation increased to 5.0 percent in August, although it remains below the Bank’s medium-term target band of 6 percent to 10 percent.
Dr. Asiama said the MPC would have to determine whether the expected rise in inflation in the coming months would be a temporary adjustment linked to higher energy prices and administered tariffs or develop into more persistent price pressures.
The level remains well below the lower bound of the target band, but the direction has been upward,” he said.
Transport costs
The potential impact of higher oil prices comes at a time when transport costs are already set to increase.
The Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU) and the Ghana Road Transport Coordinating Council (GRTCC) have agreed with the government on an 8 percent increase in public transport fares from Saturday, September 26. The adjustment follows weeks of discussions over rising operating costs, including fuel, maintenance and spare parts.
The increase means higher daily commuting costs for workers, students and other public transport users.
It could also have wider economic effects because transport is an important component of the cost of moving people and goods. Higher fares can increase the operating costs of businesses and, in some cases, feed into the prices of goods and services.
For households, higher transport costs could reduce the amount of income available for food, education, savings and other expenses.
Pressure on businesses
A sustained rise in oil prices could increase the cost of fuel, transportation, electricity generation and other energy-intensive activities.
Businesses that rely on imported fuel, machinery, raw materials and fertiliser could face higher operating costs. Companies may respond by absorbing some of the additional costs, reducing margins or passing part of them on to consumers through higher prices.
For farmers, higher fertiliser and transportation costs could also increase production and distribution expenses, potentially affecting food prices if the higher costs are passed through the supply chain.
However, Dr. Asiama said exchange rate stability had so far helped to contain imported inflation, while inflation expectations had eased across the groups surveyed by the Bank.
MPC weighs policy options
The developments will form part of the MPC’s assessment of whether the current Monetary Policy Rate of 14 percent remains appropriate.
Dr. Asiama said the Committee would consider whether the balance of risks had shifted sufficiently to require a change in monetary policy or whether there was still a case for maintaining the rate.
The Committee’s task during this meeting is to judge whether the balance of risks has shifted enough to warrant a different policy response, or whether there remains a case for still maintaining the policy rate at its current level,” he said.
The decision will be closely watched by businesses, households and financial institutions because changes in the policy rate can affect the cost of borrowing, credit growth, investment and economic activity.
Ghana’s economy grew by 6.0 percent in the second quarter of 2026, while inflation remains relatively low. The challenge for the Bank will be to protect the recent gains in price stability without unnecessarily constraining economic activity as external pressures build.
For businesses and households, the immediate concern is that a prolonged rise in oil and other import costs could gradually increase the cost of doing business and living, even if Ghana’s relatively stable exchange rate helps to cushion part of the impact.
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